💰 Business & Finance Markets

Will the Japanese yen trade below 160 JPY/USD at the end of March 2026?

89%

Market YES

11%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 81% -8 pts

50/100

High probability for yen trading below 160 JPY/USD by March 2026.

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 6% as measured from a prior peak?

77%

Market YES

23%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 69% -8 pts

45/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

90.36%

Market YES

10%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 84.36% -6 pts

45/100

Market favors LLMs over GLP-1 agents for economic impact by 2030.

Will the UK face the "longest recession in G7"?

82.37%

Market YES

18%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 76.37% -6 pts

55/100

Market strongly predicts the UK will have the longest recession in G7.

Will I resolve this market to yes within 12 hours of it reaching 10 traders?

96.32%

Market YES

4%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $9K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 90.32% -6 pts

55/100

High probability of resolution within 12 hours after reaching 10 traders.

Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

96.2%

Market YES

4%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $268K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 90.62% -6 pts

45/100

The market strongly favors the Milky Way's existence in 2030.

Yuta Stock

95.24%

Market YES

5%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $5K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 89.24% -6 pts

35/100

Yuta Stock has a high probability of a positive outcome based on current market sentiment.

Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day tariffs?

86.07%

Market YES

14%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 80.07% -6 pts

55/100

High probability for an injunction against the Liberation Day tariffs.

Line stock [permanent]

79%

Market YES

21%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 73% -6 pts

45/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 45/100. NO side may be undervalued.

Will Javier Milei get inflation below 30% by the end of his term?

85.49%

Market YES

15%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $6K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 79.49% -6 pts

45/100

Market strongly favors Javier Milei achieving inflation below 30%.

Will the EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement be applied in 2026, even if provisionally?

88.89%

Market YES

11%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 82.89% -6 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: YES — confidence 55/100. NO side may be undervalued.

Will Maxx Crosby get traded from the Las Vegas Raiders before March 10th?

89%

Market YES

11%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $2K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 83% -6 pts

65/100

High probability suggests Maxx Crosby is likely to be traded before March 10th.

Will US inflation go above 3% before unemployment goes below 4%?

81.31%

Market YES

19%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $12K

⚡ Pulse Score

YES AI: 75.31% -6 pts

65/100

Market predicts high likelihood of inflation exceeding 3% before unemployment drops below 4%.

Will tariffs in Q4 2025 be below what they were in Q4 2024?

1%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 6.5% +5.5 pts

50/100

Market predicts tariffs in Q4 2025 will be higher than in Q4 2024.

Will this market have 3333 trades by the end of March 15th, 2026?

0.97%

Market YES

99%

Market NO

Manifold

Vol $3K

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 27.96% +5.5 pts

60/100

Market probability favors fewer than 3333 trades by March 15, 2026.

Will the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?

24.47%

Market YES

76%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 29.97% +5.5 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

WIll the United States Economy avoid a recession by 2029?

39.03%

Market YES

61%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 44.53% +5.5 pts

45/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will the ICE agents who shot Alex Pretti be charged in any federal court?

11.62%

Market YES

88%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 17.12% +5.5 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will US GDP per capita exceed 10x Western Europe's before 2050?

18.91%

Market YES

81%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 24.41% +5.5 pts

45/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 45/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%?

45.57%

Market YES

54%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 51.07% +5.5 pts

40/100

Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 40/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will this market have more than 50 unique traders by the end of this week?

18.57%

Market YES

81%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 24.07% +5.5 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026?

11%

Market YES

89%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 16.5% +5.5 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?

35%

Market YES

65%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

NO AI: 40.5% +5.5 pts

55/100

Pulse verdict: NO — confidence 55/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.

How many traders will bet?

41.5%

Market YES

59%

Market NO

Manifold

⚡ Pulse Score

~ AI: 47% +5.5 pts

50/100

Pulse verdict: uncertain — confidence 50/100. Insufficient data for a confident assessment.