Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%?

High probability indicates strong market belief in rate cuts before reaching negative 4%.

The market shows a significant inclination towards a YES outcome, with a probability of 96.27%. This suggests that participants expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut rates prior to the inflation minus unemployment rate falling below negative 4%. However, the NO side appears undervalued, indicating potential market mispricing.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors a rate cut before negative 4%.
• 2 Market probability for YES is significantly higher than NO.
• 3 The NO side is undervalued by 6 points, suggesting potential mispricing.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 6628 hours, allowing for potential market shifts.