Will the fed funds rate be below 4% at anytime by the end of 2026?

High probability that the fed funds rate will be below 4% by end of 2026.

The market shows a strong consensus with a 98.79% probability for the fed funds rate to fall below 4% by the end of 2026. The Pulse AI also supports this outlook, albeit at a slightly lower probability of 92.79%. However, the NO side appears undervalued by 6 points, indicating potential market skepticism.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a decline in the fed funds rate.
• 2 Key factors include inflation trends and economic growth forecasts.
• 3 Historical base rates suggest a tendency for rates to fluctuate based on economic conditions.
• 4 Liquidity in the market is high, reflecting strong participant engagement.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with 6793 hours until market expiry.