Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?

Market sentiment is divided on whether tariff refunds will be issued to most payers.

The prediction market shows a slight majority (57.63%) believing that tariff refunds will not be given to most who paid them. The probabilities from the Pulse AI indicate a closer divide, with a marginally higher chance for refunds at 45.87%. This suggests uncertainty and varying opinions on the likelihood of refund distributions.

• 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' at 57.63%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 45.87%.
• 3 The market is considered fairly priced with an edge of 3.5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 45 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is extensive at over 25000 hours, allowing for potential shifts.