Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026?

The market indicates a low probability of the federal funds rate falling below 2.5% by July 2026.

Current market probabilities suggest a strong belief that the federal funds rate will remain above 2.5%, with a 91% likelihood of this outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for a potential drop. The edge indicates insufficient data for a confident assessment, highlighting uncertainty in future economic conditions.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors rates staying above 2.5%.
• 2 Historical trends show rates have remained elevated in similar economic climates.
• 3 Liquidity in the market appears moderate, impacting confidence levels.
• 4 The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential economic shifts.
• 5 Market participants are cautious, reflected in the low confidence score.