Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Market indicates a low probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closing by April 30.

The prediction market shows a 28.5% chance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait being effectively closed by the end of April, suggesting skepticism about this scenario. The Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating a 29% probability for closure. With a confidence level of 75/100 and a low edge, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards the Strait remaining open.
• 2 Historical data suggests low frequency of closures in this region.
• 3 Liquidity in the market appears stable, supporting current odds.
• 4 Time pressure is moderate with 715 hours until expiry.
• 5 Market confidence reflects a balanced view of potential risks.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.

If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b981