Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?

Low probability of a 25 bps rate cut by the Bank of England after April 2026 meeting.

The market shows a strong consensus against a rate decrease, with a 98.7% probability of 'NO'. The AI probability also aligns closely, indicating a well-priced market with a slight edge for 'NO'. Confidence is moderate at 60/100, suggesting some uncertainty remains.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors no rate cut.
• 2 The probability of a rate cut is significantly lower than AI predictions.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a small edge.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 904 hours.

The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for April 2026 is scheduled to be released on April 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.