Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?

Market indicates low probability for a rate cut by the Bank of England after March 2026.

The prediction market shows an 11% probability for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England after the March 2026 meeting, suggesting a strong expectation that rates will remain stable. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar outlook, with a slightly higher probability of 13%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards maintaining interest rates.
• 2 Key factors include inflation trends and economic growth indicators.
• 3 Historical base rates suggest stability in the near term.
• 4 Liquidity in the market is adequate, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 216 hours until expiry.

The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for March 2026 is scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's March 2026 meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.