Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting?

Market strongly favors no rate decrease by Bank of Japan after March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 99.85% probability that the Bank of Japan will not decrease interest rates after the March 2026 meeting. With a low probability of 0.15% for a decrease, the market appears to be fairly priced, reflecting a consensus that rates will remain stable. The confidence level of 75/100 suggests moderate certainty in this outlook.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors no rate decrease.
• 2 Market probability indicates strong confidence in stability.
• 3 Historical trends show low likelihood of rate cuts in similar contexts.
• 4 Liquidity appears sufficient for current market dynamics.
• 5 Time pressure is limited with 234 hours until expiry.

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for March is scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's March 2026 meeting.

If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.