Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?

Market suggests low likelihood of a 25 bps rate increase by the Bank of Japan after March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against a rate increase, with a 98.1% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that market participants do not foresee changes in the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy in the near term.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors no rate increase.
• 2 Economic indicators show stability, reducing rate hike expectations.
• 3 Historical context suggests low volatility in Japan's interest rates.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 Time pressure is limited with 232 hours until market expiry.

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for March is scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's March 2026 meeting.

If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.