Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 meeting?

Market strongly favors no increase in interest rates by the Bank of Japan after March 2026.

The prediction market shows a dominant probability of 99.75% for no increase in interest rates by the Bank of Japan after the March 2026 meeting. With a low probability of 0.25% for a 50+ bps increase, the market appears to be fairly priced, reflecting strong confidence in the current monetary policy stance.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors no rate increase.
• 2 Historical trends show the Bank of Japan's cautious approach to rate hikes.
• 3 Liquidity in the market appears stable with low volatility.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 234 hours.
• 5 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced with a slight bias.

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for March is scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's March 2026 meeting.

If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.