Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?

Market sees low probability for a Fed rate cut by April 2026.

The prediction market indicates an 18.5% chance of a Fed rate cut by April 2026, with a consensus leaning towards no cut. The Pulse AI aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a fair market pricing with a slight edge. With 1211 hours until expiry, the market reflects cautious optimism regarding future monetary policy.

• 1 Current market probability for a rate cut is low at 18.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI slightly higher at 19%, indicating cautious optimism.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a 0.5 edge.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 1211 hours, allowing for potential shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for April 2026, currently scheduled for April 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.