Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

High probability for a Fed rate cut by December 2026 is indicated.

The market shows an 86.5% probability for a Fed rate cut by the December 2026 meeting, aligning closely with the Pulse AI's 83.5%. With a confidence level of 75/100 and a time to expiry of 2262 hours, the market appears fairly priced, suggesting a strong consensus on the likelihood of a rate cut.

• 1 Current sentiment strongly favors a rate cut by December 2026.
• 2 Market probability is significantly higher than the NO option.
• 3 The Pulse AI probability is slightly lower than the market, indicating a consensus.
• 4 The edge of -3 suggests the market is fairly priced with little room for mispricing.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential economic developments to influence outcomes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.