Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting?

The market predicts no Fed rate cut by January 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong consensus against a Fed rate cut by January 2026, with a 100% NO probability. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, assigning a 99% likelihood to the NO outcome, suggesting that market participants expect stable interest rates in the near term.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in a stable rate environment.
• 2 Current sentiment strongly favors maintaining existing rates.
• 3 Historical trends indicate rate cuts are less likely in stable economic conditions.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears sufficient to support current pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry remains uncertain, adding complexity to future predictions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.