Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?

Market indicates a 58% chance of a Fed rate cut by July 2026.

The prediction market shows a 58% probability for a Federal Reserve rate cut by the July 2026 meeting, with a slight edge favoring this outcome. The Pulse AI aligns closely with the market, suggesting a well-balanced sentiment among participants. Confidence in this prediction is moderate, reflecting a mix of factors influencing monetary policy expectations.

• 1 Current market probability suggests a leaning towards a rate cut.
• 2 The Pulse AI probability is closely aligned with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential market shifts.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, with no significant barriers to trading.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2026, currently scheduled for July 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.