Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

The market shows a near even split on a Fed rate cut by June 2026.

With a market probability of 47% for a Fed rate cut by June 2026, sentiment is closely divided. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely at 47.5%, suggesting the market is fairly priced with a slight edge of 0.5. Confidence in this prediction stands at 75 out of 100, indicating a moderate level of certainty.

• 1 Current sentiment is nearly balanced between yes and no.
• 2 Key factors include inflation trends and Fed policy shifts.
• 3 Historical base rates suggest cautious optimism for cuts.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, supporting current market pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with 2373 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.