Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?

Market indicates a low probability of a Fed rate cut by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against a Fed rate cut by March 2026, with a 98.5% probability for 'NO'. The slight edge of 0.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a high level of confidence in the current interest rate environment.

• 1 Current market probability for a rate cut is very low at 1.5%.
• 2 The Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment at 2%.
• 3 The confidence level of 80/100 indicates a strong belief in the current predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 217 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 Market appears to be well-balanced with a slight edge, suggesting stability in expectations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for March 2026, currently scheduled for March 17-18. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no March meeting takes place by April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.