Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?

The market indicates an 80.25% chance of a Fed rate cut by October 2026.

Current market probability suggests strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut by the October 2026 meeting. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating a consensus on this outlook. With a confidence level of 75/100, the market appears to be fairly priced with a slight edge against the AI prediction.

• 1 Market probability shows strong sentiment for a rate cut.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly lower but still indicates a high likelihood.
• 3 The edge of -3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 indicates moderate reliability in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in economic conditions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.