Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?

Market indicates a high probability of a Fed rate cut by September 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus, with a 79.85% probability for a Fed rate cut by the September 2026 meeting. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 76.85%, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge of -3. The confidence level of 75 out of 100 indicates a moderate level of certainty in this prediction.

• 1 Current sentiment leans heavily towards a rate cut.
• 2 Economic indicators are influencing market expectations.
• 3 Historical trends suggest rate cuts are common in easing cycles.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 2373 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.