Market indicates low probability of Jerome Powell leaving by March 2026.
The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Jerome Powell stepping down as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026, with a 99.15% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 1.35%, suggesting minimal expectation for a change in leadership at the Federal Reserve.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.