Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?

Market indicates low probability of Jerome Powell leaving by March 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Jerome Powell stepping down as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026, with a 99.15% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 1.35%, suggesting minimal expectation for a change in leadership at the Federal Reserve.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors Powell remaining in position.
• 2 Historical trends show stability in Fed leadership during economic recovery.
• 3 Liquidity in this market is relatively low, indicating cautious trading.
• 4 The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in current market pricing.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.