Low probability of Jerome Powell leaving as Fed Chair by May 2026.
The market shows a strong consensus against Jerome Powell departing as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026, with a 97.7% probability for 'NO'. The slight edge in AI probability suggests a marginally higher chance of departure, but overall confidence remains high that he will continue in his role.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.