Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

Low probability of Jerome Powell leaving as Fed Chair by May 2026.

The market shows a strong consensus against Jerome Powell departing as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026, with a 97.7% probability for 'NO'. The slight edge in AI probability suggests a marginally higher chance of departure, but overall confidence remains high that he will continue in his role.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors Powell remaining in position.
• 2 Historical trends show incumbents typically serve full terms unless extraordinary circumstances arise.
• 3 Market liquidity is stable, indicating confidence in current pricing.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments to unfold.
• 5 AI probability aligns closely with market odds, suggesting balanced expectations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.