No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?

Market leans towards a rate change by the Bank of England after April 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 58% probability of a change in interest rates after the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting. This contrasts with the AI's assessment, which suggests a slightly higher likelihood of no change. The market appears fairly priced, reflecting a moderate level of confidence in the current predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a rate change post-April 2026.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI predictions is narrow.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential economic shifts.
• 5 Liquidity in the market appears stable, supporting current pricing.

The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for April 2026 is scheduled to be released on April 30, 2026.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.