S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 20?

Market expects S&P 500 to open down on March 20 with low probability of an up opening.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus that the S&P 500 will open down on March 20, with a 97.5% probability for a down opening. The AI model also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of an upward movement. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a down opening for the S&P 500.
• 2 Market probability shows a strong lean towards a negative outcome.
• 3 Historical trends suggest a low frequency of upward openings in similar contexts.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with only 7 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on March 20 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on March 20 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into t