S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10?

The market strongly favors the S&P 500 being down on March 10.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.95% chance of the S&P 500 being down on March 10, with a very low 0.05% chance of it being up. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus that the market is likely to decline. The edge of 0.95 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on available data.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a decline in the S&P 500.
• 2 Probability of an upward movement is extremely low at 0.05%.
• 3 The edge suggests that the market pricing is accurate.
• 4 Confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future market movements.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, March 10, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, March 10, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days have no official c