S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 11?

Market predicts a low chance of the S&P 500 rising on March 11.

The prediction market shows a 93.5% probability for the S&P 500 to go down on March 11, indicating strong bearish sentiment. The Pulse AI aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of an upward movement, with a slight edge indicating the market is fairly priced.

• 1 Current sentiment is heavily bearish with a 93.5% probability for a decline.
• 2 Market probability aligns closely with Pulse AI's assessment.
• 3 The edge of 0.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is currently unknown, adding uncertainty to the prediction.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, March 11, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, March 11, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days have no offici