S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 19?

Market indicates a high probability of the S&P 500 being down on March 19.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus that the S&P 500 will be down on March 19, with a probability of 98.75% for a decline. The Pulse AI corroborates this sentiment, suggesting a similar likelihood of 99%. The edge of -0.25 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on current data.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a decline in the S&P 500.
• 2 Market probability suggests low confidence in an upward movement.
• 3 Historical trends may support the current bearish outlook.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, with no signs of extreme volatility.
• 5 Time pressure is minimal, with only 1 hour until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, March 19, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, March 19, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days have no official