S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 20?

Market predicts a significant decline in S&P 500 by March 20.

The prediction market shows a 94% probability for the S&P 500 to be down on March 20, indicating strong bearish sentiment. With a confidence level of 80/100 and a market edge of -1, the pricing appears to be aligned with the underlying expectations.

• 1 Current sentiment is heavily tilted towards a market decline.
• 2 Key factors influencing sentiment include economic indicators and corporate earnings.
• 3 Historical base rates suggest a low likelihood of upward movement in similar contexts.
• 4 Liquidity in the market is stable, reflecting consistent participant engagement.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 3 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, March 20, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, March 20, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days have no official clo