S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 24?

Market strongly favors the S&P 500 to be down on March 24.

The prediction market shows a dominant probability of 99.85% for the S&P 500 to be down on March 24, with a very low chance of it being up at 0.15%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a consensus that the market is likely to decline, although the edge suggests it is fairly priced.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a market decline.
• 2 Historical trends show low volatility leading up to this date.
• 3 Liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 4 Market confidence is moderate at 65/100.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to predictions.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, March 24, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, March 24, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days have no official c