S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 25?

Market overwhelmingly predicts the S&P 500 will be up on March 25.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus with a 99.95% probability for the S&P 500 to be up on March 25. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly lower probability of 98.45%. The edge of -1.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current sentiment and analysis.

• 1 Current market sentiment is highly bullish on the S&P 500.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI predictions is narrow.
• 3 Historical trends show strong performance leading up to this date.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry is uncertain, which may influence volatility.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, March 25, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, March 25, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days have no offici