S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 27?

Market strongly favors a decline in the S&P 500 on March 27.

The prediction market shows a significant probability of 99.1% for the S&P 500 to go down on March 27, with a very low probability of 0.90% for it to go up. The Pulse AI also aligns with this sentiment, indicating a strong consensus against an upward movement in the index. With only 2 hours until expiry, the market appears to be fairly priced with a slight edge.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a decline in the S&P 500.
• 2 The probability of a rise is extremely low at 0.90%.
• 3 The Pulse AI reflects a similar outlook with 99% chance of decline.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 0.1.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 2 hours until market expiry.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, March 27, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, March 27, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.

E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days have no official clo