US recession by end of 2026?

Market indicates a low probability of a US recession by the end of 2026.

The prediction market shows a 32% chance of a US recession occurring by the end of 2026, with a majority (68%) believing it will not happen. The market probability aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability, suggesting a balanced assessment of the economic outlook. With a confidence level of 75 out of 100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards economic stability.
• 2 Key factors include inflation rates and employment data.
• 3 Historical base rates show a low frequency of recessions in this timeframe.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears adequate for trading.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with nearly 330 days until expiry.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from t