Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?

Market favors fewer than 15 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The prediction market indicates a higher likelihood of fewer than 15 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with a NO probability of 68.25%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a consensus on lower transit volumes during the specified period.

• 1 Current market probability leans towards fewer than 15 ships transiting.
• 2 Pulse AI probability closely aligns with market sentiment.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 15 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 10, 2026 through March 16, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 16, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.