Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Market leans towards fewer than 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz in March.

The prediction market indicates a 59% likelihood that fewer than 20 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March. Both the market and Pulse AI probabilities are closely aligned, suggesting a consensus on the expected shipping activity. The confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in this assessment.

• 1 Current market probability favors fewer than 20 ships transiting.
• 2 Pulse AI slightly supports the market's NO verdict.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a small edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 376 hours.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will