Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?

Market favors fewer than 25 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz next week.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that fewer than 25 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz from March 10-16, with an 87% probability for 'NO.' The market appears fairly priced, reflecting a moderate confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current sentiment leans heavily towards fewer than 25 transits.
• 2 Market probability aligns closely with AI predictions, indicating stability.
• 3 Historical data suggests a low frequency of high transit weeks in this period.
• 4 Liquidity appears adequate, supporting the current market pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 13 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 10, 2026 through March 16, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 16, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.