Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?

Low probability for 30-34 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz from March 10-16.

The prediction market indicates a 4.90% chance of 30-34 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the specified period, with a strong consensus leaning towards 'NO' at 95.1%. The AI model slightly adjusts this probability, suggesting a 5.9% chance for 'YES', but overall confidence remains moderate at 65/100, indicating a balanced market assessment.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Historical data shows low transit numbers during this timeframe.
• 3 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent trader interest.
• 4 The time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 Market probabilities are closely aligned with AI predictions.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 10, 2026 through March 16, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 16, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.