Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?

The market strongly favors fewer than 35 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz next week.

With a market probability of 95.15% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus that 35-39 ships will not transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a slight difference in probabilities but maintaining a strong 'NO' outlook.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a well-balanced market with minimal edge.
• 3 Historical data may support lower transit numbers during this period.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent trader interest.
• 5 Time pressure is high with only 13 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 10, 2026 through March 16, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 16, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.