Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?

Low probability for 40-44 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz this week.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that fewer than 40 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16, with a market probability of 92.9% for 'NO'. Both the market and Pulse AI probabilities are closely aligned, suggesting a consensus on this outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards fewer than 40 ships transiting.
• 2 The probabilities from the market and AI are closely aligned, indicating stability.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 13 hours, increasing urgency in the market.
• 5 Historical data may support current low transit expectations based on recent trends.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 10, 2026 through March 16, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 16, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.