Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Market favors fewer than 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz in March.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards a NO outcome, with a probability of 79.5%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit slightly more optimistic for a YES outcome at 22.5%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors fewer than 40 transits.
• 2 Historical data indicates lower traffic during March in previous years.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting current pricing.
• 4 Time pressure is moderate with 376 hours until expiry.
• 5 Potential geopolitical developments could shift probabilities significantly.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will