Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?

Market predicts low likelihood of 45 or more ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz next week.

The market shows a strong preference for the NO outcome, indicating that participants believe it is unlikely for 45 or more ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16. Both the market probability and Pulse AI probability align closely, suggesting a consensus on this prediction. With a confidence level of 65/100, there is moderate certainty in the NO verdict.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 Key factors include geopolitical stability and oil market conditions.
• 3 Historical data suggests lower transit numbers during this period.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, with no major fluctuations in betting activity.
• 5 Time pressure is significant, with only 16 hours until market expiry.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 10, 2026 through March 16, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 16, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.