Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Low probability for 60 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz in March.

The market indicates an 86% likelihood that fewer than 60 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI's assessment, suggesting a consensus on the low shipping volume expected in this period.

• 1 Current market probability favors a NO outcome significantly.
• 2 Historical data may support lower transit numbers during this period.
• 3 Market sentiment reflects cautious expectations for shipping activity.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, with no significant fluctuations noted.
• 5 Time to expiry suggests limited changes in market dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will