Will a dozen eggs cost ≥$4.00 in March?

The market strongly favors that a dozen eggs will cost less than $4.00 in March.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood (99.15%) that a dozen eggs will not reach $4.00 in March. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for the YES outcome. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 346 hours, the market appears fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO at 99.15%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a lower probability for YES at 2.85%.
• 3 The market is considered fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 346 hours, allowing for potential market shifts.

This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the March data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111).

The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The March release is presently scheduled for April 10, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.