Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.1% in February?

The market strongly favors no increase in annual inflation by ≤2.1% in February.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood (99.15%) that annual inflation will not increase by ≤2.1% in February. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a low probability of a yes outcome. With a confidence level of 65/100, the market appears fairly priced, reflecting a consensus view on inflation trends.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.15%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 1.85%.
• 3 Current sentiment indicates strong confidence against inflation increase.
• 4 The edge of 1 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, with only 17 hours remaining.

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending February 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in February 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for February 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on March 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve accor