The market strongly favors that inflation will not increase by 2.3% in February.
With a market probability of 99.95% for 'NO', participants overwhelmingly believe inflation will not rise by 2.3% in February. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a consensus against this inflation increase. The edge of 0.95 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current expectations.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending February 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in February 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for February 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on March 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve accor