Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in March?

Market indicates low probability of a 3.0% inflation increase in March.

The prediction market shows a 21.5% chance of annual inflation increasing by 3.0% in March, with a stronger consensus against it at 78.5%. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting a slight overestimation of the likelihood of inflation rising by 3.0%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with moderate confidence.

• 1 Current market probability for inflation increase is low at 21.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability at 23.5%.
• 3 Market confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively long at 627 hours, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to t