Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?

Market predicts more than 10 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz next week.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus that more than 10 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz from March 10-16, with a low probability of fewer than 10 transits. Both the market and AI probabilities align closely, indicating a stable outlook with confidence levels suggesting moderate certainty in this prediction.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors more than 10 ship transits.
• 2 Market probability closely aligns with AI predictions.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the outcome.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to the market dynamics.
• 5 Historical data may support the likelihood of higher transit volumes.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 10, 2026 through March 16, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 16, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.