Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in March?

The market indicates a low probability of a 0.5% inflation increase in March.

With a market probability of 3.25% for an increase in monthly inflation by 0.5%, the consensus leans heavily towards stability. The Pulse AI probability is slightly higher at 5.25%, but both figures suggest minimal expectation of inflation rising significantly in March.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors no inflation increase.
• 2 The probabilities suggest a well-balanced market with minor discrepancies.
• 3 Historical trends indicate inflation rates have been stable recently.
• 4 Liquidity appears adequate for market participants to act on their views.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential market shifts.

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in March 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will re