Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?

The market shows a slight probability of a rate decrease by the Bank of Mexico in March.

Currently, there is a 56.5% probability that the Bank of Mexico will announce a decrease in rates at the March meeting. The market appears fairly priced, with a slight edge towards a decrease, reflecting moderate confidence in this outcome.

• 1 Current market probability favors a rate decrease slightly.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 345 hours.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of -1.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for March 26, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.