Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?

Market leans towards a rate change at the March meeting of the Bank of Mexico.

The prediction market indicates a 59.5% probability of a rate change by the Bank of Mexico, suggesting a prevailing sentiment against maintaining the current rate. The AI model shows a slightly higher probability for no change at 42.5%, indicating some divergence in expectations. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market probability favors a rate change over no change.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for no change than the market.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 344 hours, adding urgency.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's March 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for March 26, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.