Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?

The market strongly favors no 50+ bps decrease by the ECB in April 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.65% likelihood that the ECB will not announce a 50+ bps decrease at its April 2026 meeting. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 2.35% for such a decrease, suggesting a consensus against this outcome. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market heavily favors a 'NO' outcome for a rate decrease.
• 2 Low market probability suggests strong confidence in current ECB policies.
• 3 The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential economic shifts.
• 4 Market sentiment reflects stability in the Eurozone economy.
• 5 Liquidity appears adequate, supporting the current pricing structure.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.

If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html

The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.

If no interest rate decision or update is published by Ma