The market strongly favors no significant ECB rate cut in March 2026.
Current market probabilities indicate a 99.7% likelihood that the ECB will not announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with only a 1% probability for a rate cut, suggesting a consensus against such a move. The edge of 0.7 indicates that the market is fairly priced based on available information.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its March 19, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the March 19, 2026 meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by March 31, 20